Dialling ‘Q’ For Quality

India continues to be a land of paradoxes. The country’s thriving telecom sector provides another telling instance of this. Here’s how. The sector is booming, with telecom service providers scrambling to rollout 5G services across cities, towns and villages to make the promise of up to 20 gigabits-per-second (gbps) peak data rates and 100-plus megabits-per-second (mbps) average data rates a reality. At the same time, however, tens of millions of telecom subscribers have to live with frequent call drops, bad network connection, sub-standard voice quality, and slow internet speeds that seem to have become the order of the day. Why must this be so?

Experts say the explosive growth in data consumption fuelled by more than 850 million active internet users in the country has led to an increase in network congestion due to a 'remarkable surge' in mobile data traffic. Besides, infrastructure challenges and frequent fibre disruptions have also contributed to the problem, they say. 

According to Prashant Singhal, Leader, Global TMT Emerging Markets at EY, the outages in the backhaul network are mainly due to cuts in the fibre network. “Cuts in fibre links cause traffic to be re-routed to already highly utilised links creating choke points and severely impact end-customer experience,” he says. 

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) that governs the sector called a meeting of the telecom service provider in February directing them to take corrective measures to improve call quality on an urgent basis as well as introduce a mechanism for monitoring quality of service (QoS) for 5G on a full scale, all-day basis. "While rolling out 5G network, telecom service providers should ensure that there is least disturbance or degradation of quality of service of existing telecom services," Trai Secretary V. Raghunandan said at a meeting with the telecom service providers.

Impact of 5G Rollout 
Experts ascribe the fast rollout of 5G services across the country as a potential explanation for the network outages. Says Peeyush Vaish, Partner & TMT leader, Deloitte South Asia, "While 5G technology promises enhanced network capabilities and faster speeds, deploying 5G infrastructure requires upgrading existing network equipment and integrating new components into the network ecosystem creating a possibility of technical issues, misconfigurations, or software bugs that can directly result in network outages." 

Singhal of EY resonates the thought saying, “There would be a period where the QoS in the 4G network would be impacted due to time taken for the backhaul provisioning to stabilise while customers are transitioning from the 4G to the 5G network.”

This problem is not difficult to rectify, according to Vaish. “A collaboration with equipment vendors and adherence to industry standards can help mitigate potential disruptions and ensure a smooth transition to 5G with minimal network outages," he says. 

Telecom sector expert Charu Paliwal terms these network outages as 'ironic' when the country is going full steam on 5G. "A tug of war between infrastructure providers and operators, slow rate of tower fiberisation, technical snags/ glitches and network shutdown by the government (such as most recently in Manipur) are among the myriad factors leading to network outages," says Paliwal. 

Trai, according to Paliwal, is taking a more comprehensive approach to evaluate QoS and address the call drop issue. "It plans to leverage AI and digital tools to raise the service quality and address issues. It is rejigging the penalty regime and has also taken targeted initiatives such as directing operators to submit service quality reports for each state and UT starting with the March 2023 quarter. It is developing updated QoS norms, particularly for 5G services," Paliwal adds. 

Faisal Kawoosa, Chief Analyst & Founder, Techarc says its “high time” for the revision of QoS guidelines as well as their measurement. “We have a system in place as per Trai guidelines that may not be relevant for today’s digital consumer and the QoS desired,” he says, adding, “The biggest challenge is lesser number of cell sites. The subscribers and networks have grown in recent years, but our towers are still in the range of 550k-600k, which isn’t sufficient for the kind of footprints we have.” Along with the towers, there is the issue of fibre connectivity persists, and if these two are addressed, the quality of services can be substantially improved. 

As per the Department of Telecom, 5G base transceiver stations (BTS) numbered 2,75,256 as on 2 July 2023 compared to 53,590 as on 5 Jan 2023. Experts say that many more of these stations are needed for the quality to services to improve. 

Singhal underlines that access to quality backhaul network is a prerequisite for transfer of large data traffic and minimise network congestion. But the challenge here is the non-uniform implementation of right of way (RoW) rules which has inhibited network rollout, according to him. Despite 35 states issuing their RoW policies, local implementation is a hurdle due to non-alignment between central/state laws and local bylaws, says Singhal. 

Challenges & Solutions
Indian telecom operators face several challenges in maintaining a high-quality network infrastructure. To address these challenges, operators are expected to invest around $19.5 billion in the development of advanced infrastructure for 5G by 2025. "They are also deploying advanced technologies like fibre-optic networks and enhancing network capacity. Additionally, measures such as proactive maintenance, timely infrastructure repairs, and implementing redundancy mechanisms are being taken to ensure uninterrupted service and minimise network outages," says Vaish. 

The Indian telecommunications sector is also adopting innovative strategies like the deployment of advanced network monitoring tools and artificial intelligence-driven analytics to proactively identify and address potential network issues. Telecom operators are also investing in network infrastructure upgrades, such as the implementation of fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) connections, which are expected to reach 50 million households by 2023-end. Additionally, telecom operators are adopting technologies like Internet of Things (IoT) to meet the increasing demands of data-intensive applications and devices. These efforts collectively are aimed to improve network capacity, reduce congestion, and ensure seamless connectivity for consumers.

Meanwhile, as per the latest Ericsson Mobility Report, by the end of 2028, 5G subscribers in India will account for approximately 57 per cent of mobile subscriptions, numbering 700 million subscribers. This, says Vaish of Deloitte, places India as the fastest-growing 5G region globally, heralding transformative advancements in connectivity and unlocking immense potential across various industries. 

Are there visible signs of operators benefitting from the 5G rollout in their declared financials? “Currently, there are no 5G-specific tariff plans in India. 5G is being offered at the same price as 4G. The focus is on on-boarding as many customers onto the 5G network,” says Singhal. 

Agrees Vaish, “The timeline for operators to witness returns on their balance sheets relies on multiple factors, including network coverage, subscriber adoption, the development of compelling use cases, and effective monetisation of value-added services. A steadfast long-term perspective is essential as operators persist in investing in infrastructure and navigate the dynamic landscape of 5G.” 

Another challenge for operators, according to Paliwal, is the fact that India is a highly competitive and price-sensitive market with the cheapest mobile data pricing in the world. “There is revenue loss due to the presence of OTT apps such as Whatsapp. For instance, operators’ revenues from voice calls and SMS decreased by 80 per cent and 94 per cent, respectively, over the last decade due to internet-based calling and messaging apps. Such factors hamper the revenues for telcos and return on investment does not correlate with bottom lines,” he says. 

Bumper 5G Handsets Sale
According to Counterpoint Research sell-in data, 5G smartphone shipments crossed the 100-million mark in May 2023. For the five-month period ended May 2023, 5G shipments increased 32 per cent compared to the same period the previous year, says Shilpi Jain, Senior Analyst, Counterpoint Research. 

But the best is yet to come, say Jain, adding, "The second half of the year is expected to be better than the first half for 5G smartphones. 5G will be the main growth driver during this year’s festive sales as with expansion of 5G network, consumers are now looking forward to upgrade their device to 5G.” 

According to her, the original equipment manufacturers are also picking up the trend and launching 5G smartphones in the Rs 10,000-Rs 15,000 price band which will also boost 5G adoption. "We believe the 5G contribution will be 50 per cent to total handset shipments in 2023," says Jain. 

Kawoosa of Techarc points to a recent report that says more than 12 per cent of smartphone users in India are using 5G services; 15 per cent has a 5G-enabled smartphone. As per the report, between Reliance Jio and Airtel, both collectively serve 74 per cent of total cellular active subscribers. By December 2023, India is expected to cross 200 million 5G subscribers, says Kawoosa.  

For the continued growth of 5G services along with the existing 4G services, it is essential that the QoS improves equally fast else consumers may have to deal with poor connectivity and network outages. And that is not a scenario that the Indian telecom sector desires.