The Road Not Taken

“The moving finger writes…”. Omar Khayyam’s ode to the irreversibility of events was taken a step further – the inevitability of destiny - by the lyrics of Jay Livingston and Ray Evans (popularised through Hitchcock’s The Man Who Knew Too Much) “Que sera sera,

Whatever’s to be will be will be”. Today, it is often moving feet that write destiny: its inevitability challenged by people who challenge pre-ordained fate by migrating from village to city, or from one country to another.

The story of the human species has itself been one of constant movement, with great migrations over vast distances. Originating in Africa’s Great Rift Valley, humans have spread around the globe and, who knows, may soon move to the Moon, or to other planets in the solar system, or even beyond. We Indians are ourselves the descendants, in part, of hardy migrants from Central Asia and Iran (Persia).

Today, we continue to see vast movements of people within the country, mainly in search of better livelihoods. The big metropolitan cities have long been a magnet, not only for the nearby rural populace, but also for those whose homes are further away. Employment and entrepreneurial opportunities on a vast scale are what these hubs of industrial and commercial activity offer, along with the excitement of urban life. Yet, who could have imagined that tens of thousands from Assam and the Northeast would migrate to distant and so-different Kerala! This, even as that state itself witnessed the movement of a few million to Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia.

The result is the constant movement of ever-more people, peaking at the time of specific festivals, when millions move vast distances across the country. This, and the movement of huge amounts of foodgrain, coal, ores, oils, manufactured goods, and freight of all kinds, means massive movement across all forms of transport. The importance of moving goods and people safely, quickly, comfortably and cheaply is now more important than ever before. To this mix of requirements is the growing awareness of the need to simultaneously minimise the carbon footprint.

The last few years have seen an increased emphasis on investments in transportation infrastructure, with annual budgets providing for bigger amounts of expenditure to upgrade and expand roads and railways. This is evident from the proposed capital outlays for 2024: Rs 162,000 crore for NHAI (doubling the figure from 2022) and Rs 240,000 crore for Railways (nearly tripling the 2022 figure). In addition, there are separate allocations for Metro projects (about Rs 20,000 crore) and for roadworks (Rs 108,000). Indicative of its relative priority, the transport sector will get 11.5 per cent of the total expenditure (compared with 6.2 per cent in 2019), according to one estimate.

The substantial outlay on roads (which excludes other expenditures on roadbuilding by Municipal Corporations, etc.) will mean more, better, and broader roads. The aim of speeding up traffic flow – whether long-distance or intra-city – will be welcomed. Also, more construction means more jobs, besides creating greater demand for cement and steel. While recognising this, it may be good to also give thought to a contrarian viewpoint regarding relative priorities.

First, within the transport sector, while outlays on both road and rail have increased, it appears that roads are getting relatively higher priority. Highways and Expressways have become showpieces, flaunted by NHAI and the states. This has certainly helped to take road transportation to a new level, but in the absence of as strong a focus on railways, the result

could well be a shift of people and goods movement to roads. Already, this ratio is skewed in India, and has progressively got worse. Yet, it is well-known that an efficient railway system is a more economical and less polluting means of transport. Unlike super-fast completion of well-publicised Expressways, the equally prestigious Delhi-Mumbai (and other) freight corridor seems to be taking endless years.

Within the rail sector, show-piece Metros take priority, with innovative management structures for quick implementation. Yet the Metro systems are known to be very expensive, with a bus rapid transit system (BRTS) being a far better alternative. Being less glamorous than a Metro and facing opposition from vocal motorists’ lobbies, the BRTS has been a non-starter in most cases, or quickly abandoned (as in Delhi).

Within the road sector, investments in physical infrastructure have dominated thinking. The result is that any driving time saved because of broader and better highways is quickly nullified by time-consuming toll gates. Excellent solutions like Fast Tags don’t work in the absence of user education, easy availability, and poor enforcement. In addition, lack of lane discipline (again, absence of education/awareness and enforcement) means slow-moving traffic blocking others, besides more accidents. The latter often results in speed-breakers that nullify the efficiency of better roads. Clearly, investments in awareness, behaviour change, and enforcement may lead to safer and more efficient movement. Why not invest in these “soft” issues instead of six-laning an existing four lane highway?

On a broader level, would not more emphasis on village and small-town roads help farmers, while also decentralising industry and creating more local jobs? After all, the benefits of an existing scheme for village roads have already been established. Why not spend more on expanding the rail network to create new industrial and commercial hubs through efficient movement? Why not a quantum increase in funding the creation and use of waterways? What about more ropeway transportation (reducing pollution, traffic and accidents), and pipelines for produce (e.g., fruits) in the hills?

At the next level, why not more i-ways in place of highways? Can Bharat Net progress at Expressway-speed instead of snail’s pace so that broadband electronic connectivity is available in Panchayats and villages across the country? This would lead to further decentralisation, taking work to people instead of vice-versa, and lesser need to move people. As more goods get “dematerialised” (as have books), even the goods movement can decrease. Clearly, the problem itself needs to be redefined – to follow Frost’s “road not taken” – as: how to achieve our goals by possibly reducing the quantity rather than increasing the flow? Time for innovative, contrarian thinking…

The author loves to think in tongue-in-cheek ways, with no maliciousness or offence intended. At other times, he is a public policy analyst and author. His latest book is Decisive Decade: India 2030 Gazelle or Hippo (Rupa, 2021).